| Dear Jason,
I'm writing with an update on the never-ending saga that is redistricting here in New York. Below, I'll give you background on how we got here, what's happening now, and what's ahead for us.
But the bottom line is this: the redistricting process has made our race–which was already the toughest in New York–even tougher and even more important. Our race is now by far the most competitive race in all of Upstate New York.
I'll explain why below, but first, this latest challenge has made it as important as ever that we show we have what it takes to win, no matter what. So I have to ask, can you chip in $5 today?
How we got here.
Every ten years, the U.S. counts its population through the census. After that, each state has to revise its congressional districts to account for population shifts. Following the 2020 census, New York began updating its districts pursuant to a new process that had been enacted in the state's constitution.
What followed was a complete mess. In early 2022, the state's new Independent Redistricting Commission (IRC) published a proposed map, but the state legislature rejected it. Then, the IRC failed to submit a second map, at which point the legislature took over and enacted a map of its own in February 2022 that was supposed to be used for that year's election.
But a few months later, the courts ruled that the legislature's map was unconstitutional, so they appointed a "special master" to take charge and draw new maps for the 2022 election. The special master's map was finalized in May 2022, and that is the district that was in effect for the 2022 election.
Our district was one of the most competitive in the entire country, and we were preparing to run again in that district in a rematch in 2024. But then, in late 2023, the courts ordered the IRC to try to come up with a new map yet again. And that led us to the events of the past couple of weeks.
What happened this month?
Two weeks ago, the IRC released a new proposal for congressional districts for the 2024 election. Despite a provision in the state constitution that prohibits the IRC from drawing maps to protect particular politicians, the IRC's plan appeared to do exactly that, including by making our district substantially more favorable for my opponent (and harder for us).
But then the state legislature voted overwhelmingly to reject the IRC proposal, after which it published its own proposal (which was mostly based on the IRC's proposal), and that proposal was just approved by the legislature today. That may be the final chapter in this long saga, but these latest maps could be challenged in court, just as happened in 2022, so we'll never say never….
What's next?
On paper, this district is a hair tougher than it was before. Trump won this new district in 2016 by about 1.9%, Biden won it in 2020 by 4.4%, and Zeldin won it in 2022 by 7%--all of those numbers are about 0.2% worse than our previous district.
But here's the good news: the fundamentals of the district are the same. It's a deep purple swing seat. In 2022, we came within 1.6% of winning our race. That's less than 4,500 votes. So we can win this thing, but it won't be easy.
While the topline numbers haven't shifted much, the reality is that all these changes make things even tougher for our campaign. We lost a lot of communities in which our campaign had spent years building relationships and operations, and now we've got to start from scratch on a bunch of new turf.
Meeting people is one of the best parts of this job, and I'll be doing a lot of that in the days ahead. But reaching all those new voters will require a lot of additional resources. We want to send them mail, organize volunteers to knock on their doors, and buy yard signs for them to show their support.
That's why I'm asking for your help today. Will you chip in whatever you can to help us hit the ground running and redouble our efforts across this new district?
Finally, I want to be very clear: no matter what obstacles are put in our way, I'm as determined as ever to win this seat and take the fight for Upstate New York to Congress. This is the most competitive district in Upstate New York, and it's one of the most competitive in the country. With your help, we will win this race and take back the House.
With gratitude & high hopes,
Josh |
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